2014 Golden Globes Predictions: ‘Slave’ Vs. ‘Gravity’ and More

Think of the Awards Season as a lifeboat – and between now and Oscar night, a boatload of worthy contenders will be pared down to a few survivors.

The competition kicks off on Sunday with the televised the 71st Annual Golden Globe Awards, a looser, less serious and more booze-filled predecessor to the Academy Awards. And while the Globes, thrown by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, don't always predict the Oscars, the past two years the HFPA honored "The Artist" and "Argo," both eventual Academy Best Picture winners.

Here are our predictions:

Best Picture - Drama

Will: "12 Years a Slave"
Could: "Gravity"
Should: "Philomena"

Is this where the rubber hits the road for "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity," the two major dramatic Oscar contenders? My sense is that rumors of a "12 Years a Slave" backlash are highly exaggerated when it comes to the HFPA -- but maybe not with the Academy.

Best Picture – Comedy/Musical

Will: "American Hustle"
Could: "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Should: "Nebraska"

"American Hustle" doesn't have its strongest competition here: "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity." So it seems like a slam dunk. I'm still rooting for a "Nebraska" upset, but I wouldn't underestimate the power of the Martin Scorsese/Leonardo DiCaprio team, either.

Best Director

Will: Alfonso Cuarón ("Gravity")
Could: Steve McQueen ("12 Years a Slave")
Should: Alexander Payne ("Nebraska")

"Gravity" is clearly a director's achievement and this should be Cuarón's all the way to the Academy Awards. McQueen has a similar relationship to "12 Years a Slave" and will be a barometer of the movie's staying power. And my "Nebraska" bias wills out with a cry for Payne.

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Best Actor – Drama

Will: Chiwetel Ejiofor ("12 Years a Slave")
Could: Robert Redford ("All is Lost")
Should: Matthew McConaughey ("Dallas Buyers Club")

The best dramatic actor is the hardest race to call across the board because there are so many muscular candidates – will the HFPA go to the rising star, the senior statesman or the actor with the rebound story? Pick a straw.

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical

Will: Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Wolf of Wall Street")
Could: Bruce Dern ("Nebraska")
Should: Dern

This is Leo's night: an HFPA favorite who turns in the best performance of his adult career. Soft spot for "Nebraska's" Dern? Definitely. And he'll be an Oscar contender, too, while DiCaprio may not.

Best Actress – Drama

Will: Cate Blanchett ("Blue Jasmine")
Could: Sandra Bullock ("Gravity")
Should: Emma Thompson ("Saving Mr. Banks")

We might as well be at the Oscars: Blanchett's updated Blanche DuBois is the frontrunner but there's not a slacker in the race. Thompson's performance was the one that made me laugh and cry the most – sometimes at the same time.

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical

Will: Amy Adams ("American Hustle")
Could: Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("Enough Said")
Should: Greta Gerwig ("Frances Ha")

Can Adams ride the wave of "American Hustle" after her gutsy, sexy performance? Or could HFPA favorite Louis-Dreyfus, leaping from small-screen to big, upset the race? I'd give props to the relatively new girl on the block, Gerwig, for writing herself a wonderful part and then owning a comic lead in a title role.

Best Supporting Actor

Will: Jared Leto ("Dallas Buyers Club")
Could: Michael Fassbender ("12 Years a Slave")
Should: Leto

The Oscar race in miniature – can Leto take it all the way, or will Fassbender be riding in on his third collaboration with director Steve McQueen?

Best Supporting Actress

Will: Jennifer Lawrence ("American Hustle")
Could: Lupita Nyong'o ("12 Years a Slave")
Should: June Squibb ("Nebraska")

All three women will get Oscar nominations – the performances are just that good. The year of J.Law has stretched into two years. Nyong'o is the unknown actress who breaks through in her first movie. And then there's Squibb: a veteran actress who takes a role and squeezes it for all its humor and humanity.

The 70th Annual Golden Globe Awards, hosted by Amy Poehler and Tina Fey, will be broadcast live on NBC this Sunday night at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT.