Trump’s China Tariffs Could Mean Higher Shoe Prices for the Critical Back-to-School Shopping Season

Stephen Garner

6 February 2025 at 12:47 pm·5-min read

Shoe prices could see a significant increase by the critical back-to-school season if President Trump’s heightened tariffs on China remain in place, according to Footwear Distributors & Retailers of America (FDRA) president and chief executive officer Matt Priest.

On a call with FN on Wednesday, Priest noted that during FFANY market this week, pricing strategies dominated conversations.

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“I would say that there is a lot of interest in how to cost goods in this environment,” Priest said. “And a lot of our member companies are in a wait and see approach on what the President may do over the coming days.”

The footwear leader also noted that retailers are already having these conversations with their vendors to see what their plans are — and if they have to push more of a price burden onto consumers. “There is a lot of uncertainty in the market,” Priest added.

As for when these price increases may hit consumers, Priest noted that they could come as soon as back-to-school.

“If you think about orders being placed and the need to bring in more product for back-to-school, I can envision that’s when these increases may occur,” Priest said. “The other problem is that tariffs are being added on everything from China, so there is a broader concern about disposable income for working families. Their budgets are already stretched, so to add this extra layer it is going to cost more for families with less discretionary income when they look to buy things like footwear.”

These concerns come as President Trump’s new 10 percent duties on China-made goods took effect on Tuesday via an executive order, which blamed China for its role in America’s fentanyl crisis.

China President Xi Jinping responded to the measure with their own retaliatory tariffs, which would see a 10 percent to 15 percent duty on U.S. exports like liquefied natural gas, coal, machinery used for farming and other products.

Should they stick, China’s tariffs would impact about $20 billion worth of U.S. imports, while Trump’s new duties target $450 billion in Chinese goods.

“We brought in about $10 billion in value for footwear from China last year, 10 percent,” Priest said in response to these new tariffs earlier in the week. “I’m not a mathematician, but 10 percent is about $1 billion in additional costs at the border paid by American companies. So that $1 billion has to go somewhere. It’s got to be absorbed somewhere for companies to be competitive, to continue to have profitability.”

The ripple effects will hit hard, particularly for small and medium-sized manufacturers, according to Jay Timmons, president and CEO of National Association of Manufacturers, added. “Ultimately, manufacturers will bear the brunt of these tariffs, undermining our ability to sell our products at a competitive price and putting American jobs at risk.”

Concerns from footwear companies about this latest round of tariffs are already surfacing.

According to multiple analyst notes, Steve Madden is one company that will feel impact from the China duties. “Steve Madden sources over 70 percent of its product from China, with the goal of reducing that exposure by 40 percent to 45 percent,” an Feb. 3 equity research note from Jefferies stated.

“The company also sources a fair amount of product from Mexico, specifically for their Steve Madden women’s business. We think the company will work to lower its exposure to China, but the uncertainty around future trajectory of additional tariffs in other countries or of increasing magnitude in China is a concern and likely to impact ’25 numbers.”

Boot Barn’s interim chief executive officer John Hazen also expressed his concerns on the new round of tariffs on the company’s third quarter earnings call last week. Indeed, the company faces potential risks, particularly with 30 percent of its orders coming from China and 25 percent of its orders coming from Mexico, which could impact leather-soled cowboy boots.

But while the tariffs on Mexican imports are on hold for now, Hazen told analysts last week that the company is “testing other countries,” but the company is “not going to overreact” right now.

“There are great boots made in Mexico, and there’s supply chain efficiencies we’re looking at in terms of how we bring those boots up and how we go about manufacturing [them] and then putting some pressure on our vendors,” Hazen said last week.

With any tariff move, consumers may have to bear some of the burden, the interim CEO noted. “If there is a significant tariff, we’re going to have to work on getting better pricing, some economies of scale in the supply chain and perhaps passing some of that price increase on to the customer to maintain our margin profile,” Hazen added.

According to the FDRA, footwear prices rose a modest 0.7 percent in 2024 from the prior year, the second straight year of little change. Full-year prices were little changed across segments, with men’s shoe prices increasing 2.0 percent and women’s footwear rising a scant 0.1 percent in 2024. Children’s footwear prices slipped 0.3 percent last year, only the second full-year decline in fourteen years for the segment, the FDRA noted.

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