Oscars Predictions: Best Picture – Will ‘The Zone of Interest’ Appeal to International Voters?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture


Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 16, 2023): “The Zone of Interest” is not for the faint of hearts. It’s a grueling endeavor that doesn’t use imagery to depict the horrors that resulted in the murdering of six million Jews. Nonetheless, the A24-distributed film is the type that will appeal to the international voting bloc of the Academy, as well as members who are unafraid of immersing themselves in tougher subject matter.

Both “Anatomy” and “Zone” premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May, where the former won the prestigious Palme d’Or prize, marking the third time a woman director has won the award. The two non-English language features have received critical acclaim. If both are nominated, it would be the first time two non-English language films are recognized for best picture. “Parasite” (2019) is still the only non-English language film to win best picture.

MGM’s “American Fiction” continues its run of winning Audience Awards with three in-hand thus far from Toronto, Mill Valley and Middleburg Film Festivals. Could it be a challenger?

We should mention we still have yet to see a documentary feature nominated for best picture. Matthew Heineman’s emotionally moving “American Symphony” would make a fantastic first feature in that realm. Acquired by Netflix following its premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, the story of musician Jon Batiste navigating his wife’s illness and his career is the type of movie that can excite voters (if enough of them give it a fair shake).

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

Listed producer credits are not final and are subject to change. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
    Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan

  2. Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
    David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner

  3. American Fiction” (MGM)
    Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson, Nikos Karamigios, Ben LeClair

  4. Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone

  5. Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
    Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi

  6. The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
    Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson

  7. Maestro” (Netflix)
    Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg

  8. The Zone of Interest” (A24)
    Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson

  9. Origin” (Neon)
    Ava DuVernay, Paul Garnes

  10. May December” (Netflix)
    Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon

Next in Line

  1. Past Lives” (A24)
    David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon

  2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
    Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg

  3. The Iron Claw” (A24)
    Sean Durkin, Juliette Howell, Angus Lamont, Tessa Ross

  4. Ferrari” (Neon)
    Monika Bacardi, Thomas Hayslip, Andrea Iervolino, John Lesher, Michael Mann, Laura Rister, Thorsten Schumacher, Lars Sylvest, P.J. van Sandwijk, Gareth West

  5. Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Ben Affleck, Madison Ainley, Jason Michael Berman, Matt Damon, David Ellison, Peter Guber, Jeff Robinov, Jesse Sisgold, Jon Weinbach

  6. The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
    Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey

  7. Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie

  8. The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
    Olivier Delbosc

  9. Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
    Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion

  10. American Symphony” (Netflix)
    Lauren Domino, Matthew Heineman, Joedan Okun

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

  1. All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Sarah Harvey

  2. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.” (Lionsgate)
    Julie Ansell, James L. Brooks, Kelly Fremon Craig

  3. Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
    Mark Huffam, Ridley Scott, Kevin J. Walsh

  4. Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)
    Michel Franco, Duncan Montgomery, Eréndira Núñez Larios, Alex Orlovsky

  5. Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
    Belén Atienza, Sandra Hermida

  6. Rustin” (Netflix)
    Bruce Cohen, Tonia Davis

  7. Priscilla” (A24)
    Sofia Coppola, Youree Henley, Lorenzo Mieli

  8. BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
    Fraser Ash, Niv Fichman, Kevin Krikst, Matthew Miller

  9. Nyad” (Netflix)
    Andrew Lazar, Teddy Schwarzman

  10. Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Alan Greisman, Hannah Leader, Rick Nicita, Robert Stillman, Meg Thomson

Also In Contention

  1. Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
    Peter Del Vecho, Juan Pablo Reyes Lancaster-Jones

  2. Dream Scenario” (A24)
    Ari Aster, Tyler Campellone, Jacob Jaffke, Lars Knudsen

  3. Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
    Craig Gillespie, Aaron Ryder, Teddy Schwarzman

  4. Fair Play” (Netflix)
    Leopold Hughes, Ben LeClair, Allan Mandelbaum, Tim White, Trevor White

  5. The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Jamie Foxx, Jenette Kahn, Celine Rattray, Adam Richman, Robert Shriver, Trudie Styler, Datari Turner

  6. Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
    Cate Blanchett, Coco Francini, Christos Nikou, Andrew Upton, Lucas Wiesendanger

  7. Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
    DeVon Franklin

  8. The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Ingo Fliess

  9. Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
    Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales

  10. The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
    George Clooney, Grant Heslov

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

  • A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)

  • The Creator” (20th Century Studios)

  • Beau is Afraid” (A24)

  • Dicks: The Musical” (A24)

  • Dream Scenario” (A24)

  • The Iron Claw” (A24)

  • Past Lives” (A24)

  • Priscilla” (A24)

  • Showing Up” (A24)

  • When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)

  • You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)

  • The Zone of Interest” (A24)

  • Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Foe” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • The Beanie Bubble” (Apple Original Films)

  • Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)

  • Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)

  • Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

  • Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)

  • The Pigeon Tunnel” (Apple Original Films)

  • Tetris” (Apple Original Films)

  • Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple Original Films)

  • Across the River and Into the Trees” (Bleecker Street)

  • Golda” (Bleecker Street)

  • The Origin” (Bleecker Street)

  • Suzume” (Crunchyroll)

  • The YouTube Effect” (Drafthouse Films)

  • Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken” (DreamWorks Animation)

  • Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)

  • Asteroid City” (Focus Features)

  • Every Body” (Focus Features)

  • The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

  • My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus Features)

  • A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)

  • The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)

  • Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)

  • BlackBerry” (IFC Films)

  • Monica” (IFC Films)

  • R.M.N.” (IFC Films)

  • The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)

  • Migration” (Illumination)

  • The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)

  • Story Ave.” (Kino Lorber)

  • Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)

  • The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)

  • John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)

  • Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)

  • Baby Ruby” (Magnet Releasing)

  • Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)

  • Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures)

  • The Stones and Brian Jones” (Magnolia Pictures)

  • Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)

  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)

  • The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)

  • Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)

  • American Fiction” (MGM)

  • The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)

  • Creed III” (MGM)

  • Landscape with Invisible Hand” (MGM)

  • A Million Miles Away” (MGM)

  • The Eternal Memory” (MTV Documentary Films)

  • The Delinquents” (Mubi)

  • Fallen Leaves” (Mubi)

  • High & Low: John Galliano” (Mubi)

  • The Settlers” (Mubi)

  • Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)

  • Eileen” (Neon)

  • Ferrari” (Neon)

  • How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon)

  • La Chimera” (Neon)

  • Longlegs” (Neon)

  • Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon)

  • Origin” (Neon)

  • Perfect Days” (Neon)

  • Robot Dreams” (Neon)

  • The Royal Hotel” (Neon)

  • American Symphony” (Netflix)

  • Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix)

  • The Deepest Breath” (Netflix)

  • El Conde” (Netflix)

  • Fair Play” (Netflix)

  • The Killer” (Netflix)

  • Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)

  • Leo” (Netflix)

  • May December” (Netflix)

  • Maestro” (Netflix)

  • The Magician’s Elephant” (Netflix)

  • Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir: The Movie” (Netflix)

  • The Monkey King” (Netflix)

  • Nimona” (Netflix)

  • Nyad” (Netflix)

  • Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)

  • Rebel Moon” (Netflix)

  • Reptile” (Netflix)

  • Rustin” (Netflix)

  • Society of the Snow” (Netflix)

  • Stamped from the Beginning” (Netflix)

  • Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)

  • PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie” (Paramount Pictures)

  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures)

  • Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” (Paramount Pictures)

  • Elemental” (Pixar)

  • Black Ice” (Roadside Attractions)

  • Camp Hideout” (Roadside Attractions)

  • Dreamin’ Wild” (Roadside Attractions)

  • The Last Rider” (Roadside Attractions)

  • Moving On” (Roadside Attractions)

  • The Pod Generation” (Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment)

  • Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions)

  • All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)

  • The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures)

  • No Hard Feelings” (Sony Pictures)

  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

  • Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • The Miracle Club” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Shortcomings” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • They Shot the Piano Player” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Cocaine Bear” (Universal Pictures)

  • The Exorcist: Believer” (Universal Pictures)

  • Fast X” (Universal Pictures)

  • M3gan” (Universal Pictures)

  • Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

  • She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment)

  • Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  • The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  • Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  • Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros.)

  • Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

  • Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)

  • The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

  • The Flash” (Warner Bros.)

  • Wonka” (Warner Bros.)

2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories


About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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