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In numbers: How 2020 became the worst year for tourism in modern history

Our holiday options are limited, but at least we can travel. For those who work in tourism, the problem is far more serious - getty
Our holiday options are limited, but at least we can travel. For those who work in tourism, the problem is far more serious - getty

Sunday was World Tourism Day, typically a time to celebrate the positive impact that overseas holidays can have on economies around the globe and to look at those countries where international travel is booming.

This year has been rather different. The emergence of Covid-19, and the world’s unprecedented reaction to it, means 2020 will go down as the year tourism was, if not killed, then certainly beaten to within an inch of its life.

A few weeks ago the first comprehensive statistics emerged showing just how severely the global shutdown obliterated the holiday industry. According to the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), international arrivals fell 65 per cent during the first half of the year. Looking only at the period April-June the damage is even more remarkable, with overseas trips across the planet down 95.2 per cent.

Some destinations, due to a total ban on overseas arrivals, registered 100 per cent drops. They include Thailand, which welcomed 39.8m foreign tourists in 2019 – the figure for 2020 is likely to be less than 10m – South Africa and Argentina.

Until now, the global recession of 2009 was considered the nadir for tourism in the 21st century. Compared to this year it looks like a purple patch. “The massive fall in international travel demand during the first half of 2020 translates into a loss of 440 million international arrivals and about $460 billion in export revenues from international tourism,” laments the UNWTO. “This represents over five times the loss in receipts recorded in 2009 amid the global economic and financial crisis.”

How global tourism fell off a cliff
How global tourism fell off a cliff

A gradual recovery has begun, but it is meagre, and largely confined to European countries. Europe, with notable exceptions, seems the continent most keen to get travel moving again as part of a wider ‘living with Covid’ strategy. Many countries in Asia – and elsewhere – where the ‘zero Covid’ approach has found favour, remain closed to travellers.

Spain, for example, was closed to tourists in April and May, meaning it registered a 100 per cent year-on-year decline in overseas visitors for those months. But restrictions were eased ahead of the key summer holiday period, and that decline lessened to 75 per cent in July.

Turkey’s tourism drop was “only” 85.8 per cent in July, for Austria the figure was 40.9 per cent, Switzerland’s slump was 73 per cent, and Bulgaria’s was 66.1 per cent. Across Western Europe as a whole, arrivals were down 82.4 per cent in June.

The figures are dismal, but less so when compared to other parts of the world. The Asia-Pacific region recorded a 98.5 per cent drop in overseas arrivals during June – hardly a shock when one considers that Japan, Australia, New Zealand, China, and many others, remain closed to foreign travellers.

The regions trying to rebuild tourism
The regions trying to rebuild tourism

The outlook globally for the rest of 2020 is bleak. “Current trends suggest a decline in international arrivals [of around] 70 per cent for 2020,” says the UNWTO. “The expected reopening of several destinations in June was mostly limited to the European Union, while borders remained fully closed in 43 per cent of the world’s destinations as of September 1. Furthermore, many destinations have reintroduced travel restrictions after the resurgence of Covid-19 outbreaks.”

Global arrivals
Global arrivals

UNWTO remains relatively upbeat about next year, but this positivity is based on several assumptions: “Extended scenarios for 2021-2024 point to a strong rebound in the year 2021 based on the assumption of a reversal in the evolution of the pandemic, significant improvement in traveller confidence and major lifting of travel restrictions by the middle of the year. Nonetheless, the return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals would take 2½ to 4 years.”

It seems certain that 2020 will remain the worst year for tourism in modern history, but – development of an effective vaccine notwithstanding – 2021 may not be an awful long way behind. British travellers should perhaps be thankful they are part of Europe, the one region where there seems to be an acceptance that we’re in this for the long haul, and where tourism is slowly getting back on its feet. Our holiday options might be limited, but at least we can travel.

For those who work in tourism, particularly in developing countries, the problem is far more serious. The collapse of global travel doesn’t mean the loss of holiday options, but the loss of livelihoods. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, more than 197 million jobs could be destroyed globally if barriers to travel, such as blanket bans and quarantine measures, remain in place. Travel might be considered a luxury, but our holidays also stand between millions of people and poverty.