Japan raises defence spending to record level amid mounting threat from China

Hypersonic weapons, long-range cruise missiles and a record military budget that will shatter an historic spending cap - after decades of lying low, Japan’s self-defence forces are actively preparing for the possibility of war.

Although still constrained by the constitution - a legacy of the nation’s defeat in the Second World War - investment in the Japanese military has been quietly creeping up since 2015, but had always stuck to an unofficial limit of 1 per cent of GDP.

No more. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s unprecedented military exercises around Taiwan have created a growing sense in Tokyo that a major conflict on its doorstep could happen at any moment - and Japan must be ready.

“China is attempting to change the status quo in the region through force and it is now coordinating with the Russian military,” Fumio Ohta, a retired admiral in the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Forces and a former head of the Defence Intelligence Headquarters, told The Telegraph. “Meanwhile, North Korea continues to launch ballistic missiles and is expected to carry out another nuclear test in the coming weeks.”

“Given the circumstances, it is only reasonable that Japan responds to these challenges by increasing its defence spending,” he added.

The Defence Ministry this week requested a record 5.6 trillion yen (34.5 billion pounds) in next year’s budget, up from 5.45 trillion yen the year before. That figure is expected to swell further to 6.5 trillion yen when a number of additional procurements are included later this year, which would be roughly 1.2 per cent of GDP.

Among the equipment on the ministry’s wishlist are domestically developed cruise missiles with an extended range of more than 1,000 kilometres. They would be able to reach China or North Korea from a ship or fighter jet, a clear move towards improving first-strike capabilities that is a departure from Japan’s previous focus on defence.

Other requests include two new destroyers equipped with the Aegis anti-ballistic missile system, high-velocity glide ballistic missiles, and hypersonic weapons.

“At the moment, there is a significant imbalance in the missile capabilities between Japan and China and even North Korea,” said Admiral Ohta. “China has more than 1,000 ballistic missiles with the range to reach Japan and there are estimates that North Korea has about the same number. Japan has zero ballistic missiles.

“We have to develop a stand-off attack capability and hypersonic munitions to be able to defend ourselves.”

Since Japan’s defeat in 1945, successive governments have gone out of their way to limit defence spending, relying instead on a security arrangement with the US to guarantee the nation’s security.

Article 9 of the constitution states that Japan renounces war as a sovereign right and declares that “land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained”, resulting in what Japan has termed its “self-defence forces”.

But the changing geopolitical situation is shifting opinions in the country.

Despite historic taboos and belt-tightening at other government agencies as the economy struggles to throw off the after-effects of the pandemic and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to approve the defence ministry’s spending request.

In recent weeks, Mr Kishida has vowed to “fundamentally reinforce” the nation’s defensive capabilities and repeatedly stated that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow”.

He has described security in East Asia as "fragile" after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and promised to "substantially" increase spending to prepare Japan for a regional conflict.

New guidelines adopted by the government in June call for Tokyo to double its armed forces spending “within five years” and reach the Nato 2 per cent of GDP target within 10 years.

Five years is seen as the timeframe in which a conflict involving China and Taiwan is likely to occur.

“The year 2027 is significant to [Chinese President] Xi Jinping because he is going to be re-elected later this year and that term will come to an end in 2027, so he wants the reintegration of Taiwan into China to be his legacy,” said Admiral Ohta. “That is only five years away and yes, I believe that is a fair assessment.”

Japan is not the only country in the Asia-Pacific region that is worried war is around the corner, particularly given Beijing’s increasingly aggressive stance over contested territory in the South China Sea.

South Korea is also boosting its defence spending in the year ahead and stepping up joint exercises with the US, while India this week commissioned its first domestically built aircraft carrier, the Vikrant.

The importance of such steps was underlined last month when Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, visited Taipei, sparking an unprecedented show of military force from Beijing, simulating a full-blown invasion of the island.

Given Japan’s proximity to Taiwan – the Okinawa island of Yonaguni is less than 70 miles away – and its large US military contingent, it is very likely that China would attempt to neutralise the threat to its northern flank.

Japan got a taste of what that might look like during the Chinese drills when five ballistic missiles landed in its exclusive economic zone, prompting a furious response from Tokyo.

The drills are a “serious problem that impacts our national security and the safety of our citizens”, Mr Kishida said at the time.